Posts Tagged ‘Israel’

With the Trial of ‘Ulm5’ Activists, Germany Looks More and More Like a Police State

October 3, 2026

Activists unfurl a banner in solidarity with jailed pro-Palestine activists in Germany.

In front of the court building, activists gathered for a solidarity rally before the start of the trial against five pro-Palestine activists, holding a banner reading, “Free the Ulm 5, shut elbit down” on April 27, 2026 in Baden-Württemberg, Stuttgart, Germany.

(Photo by Julian Rettig/picture alliance via Getty Images)

The trial of five Palestinian rights activists, now approaching its final stage, has exposed for all to see not only Germany’s increasingly neofascist playbook for silencing dissent but complicity in Israel’s genocide.

C.J. Polychroniou

Oct 02, 2026Common Dreams

Germany is a country with a long and complex relationship to authoritarianism. It is also of course the country that gave birth to the most evil political regime, Nazism, in the modern era.

The Allies agreed on the denazification of Germany as a goal after the end of World War II, but the general consensus is that it wasn’t a success. Some high-ranking Nazis were put on trial and sentenced to death, others were removed from public positions, but the majority of Nazis were reintegrated into postwar German society and even landed high-ranking positions.

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Now, Germany is again displaying worrying signs of authoritarianism, as evidenced by the meteoric rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. However, Germany’s love affair with authoritarian rule runs deeper than the current surge of the AfD. Its legal and judicial system has become notorious for its restrictions on freedom of speech and its penchant for framing dissent “not as a democratic expression but as a threat to public order.”

The treatment of the Ulm5 young activists is in clear violation of European human rights law.

The Ulm5 trial underway in Stuttgart, and now approaching its final stage, has exposed for all to see not only Germany’s increasingly neofascist playbook for silencing dissent but complicity in Israel’s genocide.

In the early hours of September 8, 2025, five young pro-Palestinian activists broke into the German branch of Israeli arms manufacturer Elbit Systems in Ulm, southern Germany. Once inside, they broke windows and destroyed furniture and technical equipment. They also sprayed slogans on the walls, such as “Free Palestine” and “Germany finances, Israel bombs.” No one was injured in the attack, and the activists not only remained on site but called the police themselves and waited to be arrested.

Since their arrest, the five activists—Daniel Tatlow-Devally (an Irish citizen), Leandra Rollo (a Spanish-Argentinian citizen), Crow Tricks and Zo Hailu (British citizens), and Vi Kovarbasic (a German citizen)—have been held in separate prisons and under highly degrading conditions. They are subjected to solitary confinement conditions lasting 23 hours a day, with just a couple of very short family visits per month. Irish politicians who visited Daniel Tatlow-Devally in prison were shocked by what they witnessed.

The Ulm5 activists are being treated like terrorists; in fact, they are being treated in a similar fashion as were the kidnappers, bank robbers, and murderers of the militant “Red Army Faction” group during their arrest in the 1970s. It is thus no coincidence that the trial of the Ulm5 activists is being held at Stuttgart-Stammheim, the very venue where the terrorist trials of the 1970s were held.

The defense team of Ulm5 has asked repeatedly why the trial is being held at high-security Stuttgart-Stammheim courthouse when the five defendants merely caused property damage without anyone being hurt, but no answer has been provided. Yet the answer is clear. It’s because German authorities treat Palestine solidarity as support for terrorism. In the eyes of current German laws, especially in connection with the long-standing political assertion that “Israel’s security is Germany’s raison d’état,” the genocidal party must, by necessity, be protected and those who protest against its crimes must, by extension, be treated as nothing more than criminals or plain terrorists.

Conveniently enough, the Ulm5 pro-Palestinian activists are being charged under Section 129 of the German Criminal Law, which is directed toward ordinary organized crime and criminalizes “whosoever forms an organization, the objectives or activities of which are directed toward the commission of crimes, or whoever participates in such an organization as a member, recruits for it, or supports it.” Section 129 has two components. Subsection (a) is labeled “forming terrorist organizations” and applies to “whosoever forms an organization whose aims or activities are directed at the commission of murder… or genocide… or crime against humanity… or a war crime;” subsection (b) is directed toward any person or organization whose aim is to cause “serious physical or mental harm to another person;” commit offenses against the environment; and commit offenses under the provisions of the Weapons of War Act.

If anything, 129a applies to Israel for carrying out genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. Israel’s crimes against Palestinians have been well documented by scores of international bodies and international human rights organizations while many Holocaust scholars, including Israeli organizations, have concluded that Israel’s actions in Gaza should be treated as a case of genocide. Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups also committed crimes against humanity on October 7, according to international human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch.

Charging the Ulm5 pro-Palestine activists under Criminal Code Section 129 is a criminal act in itself by the German authorities. It shows that Germany is unwilling to tolerate any dissent or protest and will employ the repressive apparatus of the state to the possible maximum extent in order accomplish this goal. Indeed, this is not the first time that Criminal Code Section 129 has been used to suppress protests. A nationwide raid was carried out in May 2023 against the climate change protest group “Last Generation” after, ironically enough, the parliamentary body of the AfD had called on the Federal Government to examine the conditions for a ban on the organization, alleging that it was in violation of the constitutional order. And in March 2025 German public prosecutors filed charges against five members of the group for “forming a criminal organization.”

In Berlin alone, more than 3,000 climate activists have been sentenced over the past few years, according to the German newspaper Die Zeit.

Both climate activists and pro-Palestinian activists are being thoroughly pursued in Germany by its police state. Marginalized groups in cities like Berlin and elsewhere are also feeling “the politics of extreme policing,” as Berlin-based journalist and author Hanno Hauenstein put it.

The grotesque Ulm5 trial has multiple critical hearings scheduled for the month of October (the trial is slated to end in January 2027) as prosecutors seek to convict the young activists with being members of a criminal organization, which carries a sentence of up to five years in prison. The defendants are always handcuffed when they walk into the courtroom and are held in a bullet-proof glass cage.

This is an image straight out of Vladimir Putin’s Russia or Kim Jong Un’s North Korea. Or perhaps what one might have expected to see with the AfD in power. But it’s all quite revealing of how far contemporary Germany has gone into becoming once again a police state. And if this state of affairs has become again “normal” in mainstream German society, it is nonetheless an utterly disgraceful situation for the rest of Europe. The treatment of the Ulm5 young activists is in clear violation of European human rights law, as the defense lawyer of one of the accused young activists has already argued, and using the Criminal Code 129 to target protest movements and activists is plain fascism.

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C.J. Polychroniou

C.J. Polychroniou is a political scientist, political economist, author, and journalist who has taught and worked in numerous universities and research centers in Europe and the United States. His main research interests are in US politics and the political economy of the United States, European economic integration, globalization, climate change and environmental economics, and the deconstruction of neoliberalism’s politico-economic project. He has published scores of books and over 1,000 articles which have appeared in a variety of journals, magazines, newspapers, and popular news websites. Many of his publications have been translated into a multitude of languages, including Arabic, Chinese, Croatian, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Italian, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, and Turkish. His latest books are The Precipice: Neoliberalism, the Pandemic, and the Urgent Need for Radical Change (an anthology of interviews with Noam Chomsky, 2021); Economics and the Left: Interviews with Progressive Economists (2021); Illegitimate Authority: Facing the Challenges of Our Time (an anthology of interviews with Noam Chomsky, 2023); and A Livable Future Is Possible: Confronting the Threats to Our Survival (an anthology of interviews with Noam Chomsky, 2024).

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As Iran War Drags On, Trump Plans to Send Third Aircraft Carrier and Thousands More Troops to Middle East

October 2, 2026

USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group

The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its accompanying strike group are seen in a January 25, 2020 photo.

(Photo by US Navy Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Anthony Rivera)

“Either they’ll do something very proper and smart, or they won’t be around very long,” Trump said of Iran’s government.

Brett Wilkins

Cpommon Dreams, Oct 01, 2026

The Pentagon is preparing to dramatically expand the American military presence in the Middle East as President Donald Trump weighs renewed attacks on Iran, with thousands of additional troops and a third aircraft carrier being readied for deployment, even as the conflict he has repeatedly declared “over” or “won” threatens to erupt into a new and potentially broader phase.

The Washington Post reported Thursday that the Pentagon is preparing options that could put as many as three US aircraft carriers and their accompanying warships in the Middle East.

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According to The Associated Press, around 9,000 additional sailors and Marines are being dispatched aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group. The buildup could push the number of US personnel in the region above 20,000 by late October.

The Roosevelt is being sent to relieve the USS George Washington, while a third carrier, the USS George HW Bush, is also already in the region.

The new deployment plans come as diplomacy between Washington and Tehran remains stalled, and as Trump has repeatedly threatened to resume large-scale military action—including the total annihilation of the nation of over 90 million people—after the November midterm elections.

“Either they’ll do something very proper and smart, or they won’t be around very long,” Trump said of the Iranian government Thursday in Denton, Texas. “Frankly, I hate to see that, but they won’t be around very long.”

Iran, meanwhile, has reportedly begun preparing for a more expansive retaliation should the United States launch another major attack in the illegal US-Israeli war of choice against the Middle East nation.

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Reuters Thursday that the Iranian government seems “determined not to respond symbolically to a symbolic move and instead to escalate in the ⁠hope of reestablishing deterrence.”

Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump—the president’s daughter-in-law—warned during a Wednesday interview with British journalist Harry Cole that the increasingly protracted Iran War could not only tarnish Trump’s legacy, but could also cost Republicans next month’s midterm elections.

“Well, it’s possible,” Trump—who campaigned as the “peace president” on a promise of no new wars—said of the midterm risks Thursday on his way to Texas, before adding that “it should help because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”

The intelligence consensus of every US administration since former President George W. Bush—including during both of Trump’s terms—has been that Iran has not been trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Why Russia remains stubbornly insignificant to the Middle East

October 2, 2026

Joseph Massad

MEM, 2 October 2026

Moscow’s call for Palestinian statehood is empty rhetoric from a state that chose Israel in 1948 and stands by it today through genocide in Gaza and war on Iran

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addresses the 81st session of the UN General Assembly in New York on 26 September 2026 (Charly Triballeau/AFP)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addresses the 81st session of the UN General Assembly in New York on 26 September 2026 (Charly Triballeau/AFP)

In his address to the 81st session of the UN General Assembly last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasised: “The time has also come to address the main issue in the Middle East – ensuring the Palestinian statehood on the basis of countless United Nations decisions.”

Support for Palestinian statehood has been Moscow’s position since the Soviet Union backed partition in 1947, and it has remained so since the Russian Federation’s establishment in December 1991.

Rather than providing the Palestinians with substantial support against their Israeli colonisers, the Russian Federation has, since 1991, at best offered nothing more than empty diplomatic rhetoric in support of a defunct two-state solution while maintaining cordial relations with Israel.

Even after Israel openly aligned itself with the all-out western war against Russia through the war in Ukraine, the Russians have not abandoned their alliance with Israel. In that alliance, and in its pretence of “both-sidesism” through continued support for the defunct two-state solution, the Russian Federation has fared much worse than the USSR.

Aside from meaningless diplomatic declarations like Lavrov’s last week, Russia’s lukewarm support for Iran in the current war is hardly a major deviation from the Soviets’ careful balancing act in the post-war period. The Soviet and subsequent Russian commitment to alienating the Arab public continues apace.

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Far from forging a new path, the Russian Federation has refused to change its policies towards the Palestinians and Zionism, except by increasing trade and security coordination with Israel over the past three and a half decades. Its support for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which collaborates with Israel and the West, hardly counts as support for the Palestinians.

Given these realities, it is curious that no one in Russia’s ruling circles has thought of radically changing its failed Middle East policy.

Soviet alternatives

The Russian Bolsheviks, both Christians and Jews, had all along vehemently opposed not only Zionism but even the anti-Zionist Jewish nationalism of the General Jewish Labour Bund in Lithuania, Poland and Russia (known as the Bund), which called for non-territorial Jewish cultural autonomy.

It was after the Russian Revolution and the establishment of the Soviet Union that Bolshevik opposition to Zionism became state policy, while their earlier opposition to Bundist Jewish nationalism wavered. The Bund soon dissolved itself, and most of its members joined the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU).

Indeed, many former Bundists became officials in the party’s Jewish Section (Yevsektsia), implementing Soviet cultural and linguistic (Yiddish) policies towards the union’s Jewish population.

It was after the Russian Revolution and the establishment of the Soviet Union that Bolshevik opposition to Zionism became state policy

It was the Jewish Section of the CPSU that led the charge against Zionism in the country. Zionist organising became illegal in the USSR, and prominent Soviet Jewish and Christian figures railed against the settler-colonial movement in speeches and publications, describing Zionists as colonialists who aimed to subordinate indigenous Palestinian workers to British capital.

At the same time, the Soviets embarked on a policy that continued the tsars’ sponsorship of Jewish agricultural colonisation inside the country, which dated back to the late 18th century.

Under the tsars, Russian Jews were dispatched to Siberia, southern Russia, the Caucasus and Crimea to establish agricultural settlements, a number of which were still prospering at the time of the Russian Revolution.

The onslaught of the tsarist White armies and their western European sponsors against the revolution devastated the Pale of Settlement, where most Jews had lived under the tsars, killing upwards of 100,000 Jews and destroying the livelihoods of the survivors.

It was in that context that the nascent Soviet government co-sponsored and co-financed a new project with the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee to establish more agricultural colonies for Jews in southern Ukraine, the North Caucasus, the Volga region and Crimea. The project ran from 1924 until 1938, when the joint committee ran out of the funding to continue.

Soviet Zion

In 1934, the Soviets, who refused to create a “Jewish” province in Crimea because of opposition from the indigenous Crimean Tatars, created one in sparsely populated Birobidzhan. This was intended to satisfy anti-Zionist Jewish nationalists who saw the principled Soviet policies of fighting antisemitism and integrating Soviet Jews as the best riposte to settler-colonial Zionism.

While many Jewish officials opposed the project, a pro-Birobidzhan article in the Communist International’s (Comintern) International Press Correspondence (Inprecor) declared:

Now proof has been furnished that the Jews, like all the other peoples, are able like pioneers, under the hardest physical conditions, to convert an undeveloped country into a country of socialist culture. There is no “Arab question”, no conflict of imperialist interests, no flight from one anti-Semitism to another. That is the solution to the Jewish question by the Soviet Power.

The article, by an author identified only as MZ, was titled “Socialist Construction in the Soviet Union: Biro Bijan, an Autonomous Jewish Province” and appeared in Inprecor, volume 14, number 32, on 1 June 1934.

Indeed, it was the soft Zionist and hard anti-communist Hannah Arendt who admitted as much: “The Russian Revolution has dealt a blow to the first [Zionist] contention that the Jewish Question can be solved only in Palestine and that antisemitism is only to be eradicated by the building up of Palestine, in other words by the exodus of Jews from their former homelands.”

Still, the majority of Soviet Jews remained anti-nationalist and supported assimilation into Soviet society. Only a small percentage moved to Birobidzhan or to the agricultural colonies, while the majority moved to large Soviet cities in Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine, spurning Jewish nationalism in all its guises – Zionist, Bundist and Soviet-sponsored alike.

By the Second World War, Jews were so integrated into Soviet society that more than 100 Jewish generals served during the war in the Red Army, which the Jewish Bolshevik Leon Trotsky had founded and led.

The Soviets and their Communist International defended the Palestinians’ right to revolt against the British and the Zionists in both the 1920s and the 1930s, condemning the Zionists outright. In the wake of the 1929 Palestinian Buraq Wall uprising, Georgy Safarov, deputy director of the Comintern’s Eastern Department, strongly condemned the “Zionist colonies in Palestine”, describing “the Jewish community in Palestine [as] a British imperialist avant-garde”.

By the end of the war and after the Holocaust, however, Stalin had made an about-face.

Zionist reversal

Zionist lobbying of Soviet embassies in Britain and Turkey helped, but was not the main reason. At the beginning of the Cold War, the reactionary Arab monarchies and the conservative Palestinian leadership were allied with the imperialist West. Their post-war alliances and hostility to communism did not endear them to the Soviets.

Zionist pretensions to being committed socialists and non-partisan in the Cold War helped convince the Soviets to support a one-state solution for Palestinians and Jewish settlers or, failing that, the partition of Palestine into two states – one for the settlers and the other for the indigenous population.

The Soviet ambassador to the UN, Andrei Gromyko, received new instructions from Moscow in April 1947 that upended the previous Soviet anti-Zionist position. Gromyko gave impassioned speeches in May and November 1947, defending the Jewish settlers’ alleged right to establish a state in Palestine while blaming western European countries for failing to help Jews during the war.

Zionism was built as a bulwark against socialism

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When Israel was proclaimed, the Soviets rushed to recognise it, earning the hostility of the majority of the Arab world and permanently alienating all Arab communist parties, which toed the Soviet line, from the Arab public. If the Soviets thought they had gained an ally in the Middle East by supporting the Zionists, they soon realised their miscalculation.

Still, under Nikita Khrushchev, who had succeeded Stalin as party leader the previous year, the Soviet legation in Israel was upgraded to an embassy in June 1954.

It was the Arab republics, however, that would prove the friendliest Arab regimes to the Soviets: Egypt from the mid-1950s, Iraq after 1958 and Algeria after 1962, followed by others.

The Soviets continued their diplomatic relations with Israel, while their support for the Arab republics remained lukewarm compared with western imperialism’s support for Israel and the reactionary Arab regimes.

Israel’s alliance with imperialism and hostility to the Soviets were such that it launched a campaign branding the Soviets, the first regime in the world committed to fighting antisemitism in word and deed, as “antisemites”.

As Jews in western countries refused to move to Israel and immigration dried up, the Israelis sought to bring Soviet Jews to populate their settler-colony. That was the context in which they charged the Soviets with antisemitism for refusing to allow Soviet Jews to leave for Israel.

Diplomatic limits

The Soviets cut off relations with the Jewish settler-colony after the Israeli invasion of three Arab countries in 1967. Israel then intensified its campaign against Soviet “antisemitism” until the Soviets finally succumbed and allowed large-scale Jewish emigration from 1971 onwards. Half of those who left chose the US rather than Israel.

The relaxation was part of the Soviet attempt to maintain detente with the US, which led the anti-Soviet campaign on Israel’s behalf. It was Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev who relaxed emigration restrictions between 1987 and 1989, allowing a million Soviet Jews to leave the collapsing USSR for Israel, the only country that would readily take them.

Gorbachev re-established diplomatic relations with Israel in October 1991, and on 16 December that year, under US pressure, the Soviet Union voted to repeal the UN’s “Zionism is racism” resolution, which the Soviets had supported in 1975.

Unless it radically changes its Middle East strategy, Russia will remain an insignificant factor in the ongoing struggle to end Zionist settler-colonialism and Israeli regional imperialism

If Stalin’s about-face on Zionism was motivated by the Holocaust, the Cold War and the dearth of pro-Soviet Arab rulers, would the current western war against Russia, the genocide of the Palestinians and the anti-imperialism of Iran and the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance not be sufficient to prompt another reversal?

It is true that all the Arab regimes, including the collaborationist PA, are in the West’s back pocket today, as they were in 1948. They are not, however, the only players in the political field.

Western support for the Zionist project was aimed, as the antisemitic Winston Churchill put it in his 1920 article “Zionism versus Bolshevism”, at striking a blow against the Russian Revolution and “international communism”, which he identified as a Jewish “world-wide conspiracy”.

Britain’s Balfour Declaration, issued in 1917 in support of what Churchill called the “National Jews”, five days before the triumph of the Russian Revolution, was engineered to prevent Russian Jewish support for the revolution. The plan failed.

Under Gorbachev, however, the Soviet Union aptly cast one of its last votes at the UN to rehabilitate Zionism. By supporting the repeal of the “Zionism is racism” resolution days before the curtain dropped on the USSR, it erased the Soviet era’s anti-Zionism once and for all.

In view of this history, the Russian Federation should expect little change in its standing in the Middle East. Unless it radically changes its Middle East strategy, it will remain an insignificant factor in the ongoing struggle to end Zionist settler-colonialism and Israeli regional imperialism.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Joseph Massad is professor of modern Arab politics and intellectual history at Columbia University, New York. He is the author of many books and academic and journalistic articles. His books include Colonial Effects: The Making of National Identity in Jordan; Desiring Arabs; The Persistence of the Palestinian Question: Essays on Zionism and the Palestinians, and most recently Islam in Liberalism. His books and articles have been translated into a dozen languages.

Israeli Bombing of Van in Gaza City Kills Six Palestinians

October 1, 2026

Two other Palestinians were killed in separate attacks, bringing Wednesday’s death toll to at least eight

by Dave DeCamp | September 30, 2026 at 11:34 am ET | Gaza, Israel

An Israeli strike hit a vehicle in Gaza City’s Tal al-Hawa neighborhood, killing at least six Palestinians, as the IDF continues its constant violations of the US-backed ceasefire deal.

According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, 10 others were wounded in the strike. Photos of the aftermath show the strike destroyed a large van, which Gaza’s Health Ministry described as a “civilian vehicle” that was carrying a “group of citizens.”

WAFA also reported that a woman was killed by a separate Israeli strike on an apartment building in Gaza City and another person was killed by an Israeli drone attack in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, bringing Wednesday’s death toll to at least eight.

A civilian vehicle towing a trailer is seen after it was hit by an Israeli strike in the Tel al-Hawa neighborhood of western Gaza City on September 30, 2026 (ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters Connect)

The Health Ministry said in its daily update, released about midday Gaza time, before the bombing of the van, that over the past 24 hours, at least eight Palestinians were killed, and 31 were injured over the past 24 hours, as the IDF appears to have escalated its attacks in recent days. The ministry said that another person, a woman, died of wounds sustained in a previous Israeli attack.

Since the so-called ceasefire deal was signed in October 2025, the IDF has killed at least 1,431 Palestinians and wounded 5,026. According to Gaza’s Government Media Office, Israel has violated the ceasefire more than 5,000 times.

The US continues to back Israel’s attacks in Gaza despite President Trump and the so-called Board of Peace recently announcing that Hamas had agreed to a US-proposed disarmament deal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected the potential agreement, and other senior Israeli ministers continue to make clear that their ultimate goal for Gaza is the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population.

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When War Crimes Become Normal: The Price of Impunity

September 30, 2026

A child in a hospital bed in Iran after being injured in a bombing.

In this picture obtained by AFP from the Iranian news agency Tasnim on September 2, 2026 a child lies on a hospital bed receiving treatment following injuries from an overnight strike in Kuhestak, Sirik County, in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province on September 2, 2026.

(Photo by Morteza Akhondi/Tasnim News/AFP via Getty Images)

If we truly believe that all human life has equal value, then we must demand that those who order and carry out attacks on civilians face the same scrutiny and consequences, whoever they are.

Barzin Jafartash Amiri

Sep 29, 2026, Common Dreams

On Tuesday, September 1, 2026, the United States military struck a home in the town of Kuhestak, in Sirik County, southern Iran, where a wedding was underway, killing four people and wounding more than 50. The youngest victim was 4-year-old Amir Ali Karimi. Asked about the strike, US Vice President JD Vance told reporters: “What I can say with 100% confidence is that, unlike the IRGC, the United States never targets civilians in combat. We never will do that. We never have done that.” However, he added, “Sometimes, things happen.”

It’s worth remembering that the campaign the United States and Israel waged against Iran—launched without United Nations Security Council authorization—opened with a strike on the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader that killed him along with his daughter, son-in-law, daughter-in-law, and his 14-month-old granddaughter. Roughly an hour or two later, the US struck the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab with Tomahawk cruise missiles, killing 156 people, including 120 schoolchildren between the ages of six and 13. That same day, an attack on the small town of Lamerd used Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM)—munitions that burst in midair and scatter thousands of tungsten fragments—killing at least 21 people, including four children, among them 2-year-old Avina Barzegar, and wounding 100 more. In the months since, the US and Israel have struck not only military sites but universities, bridges, power plants, police stations, and even desalination plants serving remote islands in southern Iran. Whatever assurances Vance offers, the record is clear that the United States has a long history of striking civilians.

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Of course none of this is new. More than two years have now passed since Israel launched its full-scale assault on Gaza, backed fully by the United States and most Western governments. Over those two years the world has watched strikes on hospitals, schools, and universities, the shooting of civilians, even an assault captured on camera—and despite an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Israel’s prime minister, no action has been taken either to enforce that warrant or to halt the war. It was hardly surprising that a year-plus of unanswered war crimes in Gaza—what many now call a genocide—normalized the same conduct elsewhere. Israel applied much the same pattern in Lebanon, violating that country’s sovereignty to bomb schools, apartment buildings, universities, and villages. The absence of any serious response to crimes broadcast live to the world sent every power on Earth a clear message: If you are strong enough, you can commit any crime—including the crime of crimes.

Isn’t it time that those responsible for striking a bridge, a wedding, a power plant, a desalination plant, be held to account?

President Donald Trump himself has, through his own public statements, documented attacks that could easily amount to war crimes. In one Truth Social post, he wrote, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” In another, he shared footage of the strike that brought down Karaj’s unfinished B1 bridge—a civilian structure, not yet even complete, hit on Sizdah Bedar, the 13th day of Nowruz, when most Iranians are out picnicking in nature and many families were gathered under and around the bridge. The strike was a so-called double tap: A second missile hit after rescue workers arrived to help the wounded, killing two more and injuring several others. In all, 13 people were killed and 95 wounded.

This scale of targeting civilians, met with so little response from the media or the international community, is itself a troubling kind of normalization—one we cannot afford to treat with indifference. Imagine, for a moment, that Iran had bombed the White House on a holiday morning, killing the American president along with members of his family, and then struck an elementary school in Texas, killing more than 120 American students along with their teachers. How would American society, and the West more broadly, have responded? Would the dead children be called a “necessary action” or “mistake”? Or would the entire West have mobilized to respond to such an atrocity?

This same Western indifference to the deaths of people in the Global South—particularly at American hands—is visible in the words of Afghanistan’s former president, Hamid Karzai. Asked recently why he, perhaps alone among Afghan leaders, had wept in public, Karzai spoke of “our national helplessness before powers that had come in the name of helping Afghanistan,” and recalled asking American officials a simple question: If their bombs killed Afghan children, was that terrorism? They told him no—terrorism, he said they told him, is when American interests are put at risk.

This becomes painfully concrete when you consider that the Sirik wedding was only the latest entry in a long, grim record of American strikes on wedding celebrations across Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yemen going back more than two decades—a pattern trackers have documented since at least December 2001.

Isn’t it time that those responsible for striking a bridge, a wedding, a power plant, a desalination plant, be held to account? Don’t the citizens of a country whose president launched a war on another nation without UN authorization, and whose forces have committed numerous documented war crimes in the process, bear some responsibility for holding their own leaders accountable? Would the West have stayed this indifferent if a wedding, or a school, had been hit at home—or would it have moved heaven and Earth to bring the perpetrators to justice? These are the questions that demand an answer. The world cannot continue to condemn violence selectively while treating the deaths of civilians in the Global South as an unfortunate but acceptable consequence of geopolitics.

Every time a war crime is ignored, the threshold for the next one becomes lower. Every time accountability is abandoned, impunity becomes stronger. If we truly believe that all human life has equal value, then we must demand that those who order and carry out attacks on civilians face the same scrutiny and consequences, whoever they are. The first step toward ending war-crime normalization is refusing to look away.

As Trump rejects Iranian cease-fire proposal, Wall Street Journal reports plans to resume bombing after midterms

September 28, 2026

Andre Damon@Andre__Damon. WSWS, 28 Sep, 2026

US President Donald Trump on Saturday publicly rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day cease-fire, after the Wall Street Journal reported Friday night that he “has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented Iran’s position to reporters Friday outside the UN Security Council in New York. Within seven days of US acceptance, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin nuclear talks, in exchange for the lifting of the US naval blockade, the release of part of Iran’s frozen assets, the waiving of oil sanctions and a cease-fire extending to Lebanon, as the Associated Press and Al Jazeera reported.

Trump told reporters Saturday: “I’m rejecting their deal. They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they are losing so badly.”

The United States “has told Iran and the mediators that Trump has no intention of lifting the maritime embargo,” according to the Journal. Washington, the Journal wrote, “believes economic pressure will eventually force Tehran to sign an agreement with terms that are favorable to Washington and the Arab states along the Persian Gulf.”

Citing US officials, the Journal reported that Trump “has told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely.” The Journal wrote that “the level of strikes Trump is contemplating couldn’t be determined” and that his views “could be affected by the results of the midterms.”

Asked by Fox News on Sunday whether strikes in the coming weeks remained an option, Trump said they were “possible.”

The Journal’s report gives concrete content to Trump’s threat, in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, to “annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly” and to “drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations.”

The journalist Seymour Hersh wrote on June 10 he had been told that in “a recent secret meeting in the White House,” Trump “began speculating, albeit vaguely, about a nuclear option that could perhaps bring a quicker end to the war.”

On April 7, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” Asked that day whether Trump would use nuclear weapons, then-White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt did not rule it out. “Only the President knows where things stand and what he will do,” she said.Available from Mehring BooksThe struggle against imperialism and for workers’ power in IranA pamphlet by Keith Jones

Despite unleashing a full-scale aerial bombardment of Iran, the United States has failed to achieve its objectives. Announcing the war on February 28, Trump vowed to “raze their missile industry to the ground” and told Iranians to “take over your government” once the bombing was finished. Nearly seven months later, the government in Tehran remains in power, and Iranian forces have kept firing missiles at US bases.

The United States and Israel assassinated Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, on February 28, and in March Iran’s Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed him. On July 17, Iranian forces killed three US soldiers in a missile attack on the Muwaffaq Salti base in Jordan.

Al Jazeera reported August 28 that US and Israeli forces had attacked Iran at least 3,580 times, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, and had killed no fewer than 3,527 people there, according to official figures.

On September 17, the UN Human Rights Council’s fact-finding mission on Iran reported “reasonable grounds to believe” that the United States had carried out the February 28 attack on a primary school in the southern city of Minab, killing 157 people, among them 123 children, and that the attack was a war crime.

What will be the next stage of escalation? Will Trump deploy ground troops or use nuclear weapons?

On June 11, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “we will be taking Kharg Island,” Iran’s chief oil terminal, “and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela….” Trump met his top aides in the White House Situation Room on July 14 to discuss sending ground troops to seize the island, the Journal reported the next day.

More than 50,000 American troops were deployed in the region, the military news site Task & Purpose reported August 30, and units of the 82nd Airborne Division have had their deployment extended to 12 months. On Sunday morning, Trump shared on Truth Social a video in which Fox News host Mark Levin said “there is no reason [Kharg] Island is off the table….”

The cease-fire that began in April collapsed in July. On July 7, after three commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, US forces bombed more than 80 sites in Iran, and the next day Trump pronounced the cease-fire “over.” Since July 14, the US Navy has enforced a blockade of Iran’s entire coastline, which under international law is an act of war.

US forces have attacked Iran repeatedly since, including on September 1, when they killed at least five people at a wedding in Kuhestak on Iran’s southern coast, among them a child, according to Iranian media.

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Iran is a strategic battlefield in a developing global war against Russia and China. CNN reported Friday, citing unnamed sources, that satellite imagery from Chinese groups helped Iran carry out the July 17 attack in Jordan. According to the Journal, Trump “is reluctant to resume major combat operations” partly because the United States “wants to reserve dwindling munitions for other contingencies.”

French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that France would send “soldiers, radar systems and defense systems” to protect Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu oil terminal on the Red Sea, which Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthis have attacked with missiles.

In a CNN poll published September 22, 78 percent of respondents said Trump was not doing enough to end the war, and 76 percent said it had not been worth the cost.

Trump’s approval rating was 34.6 percent on Thursday, according to the FiftyPlusOne average compiled by the analyst G. Elliott Morris, the lowest for any president this close to a midterm election since scientific polling began in the 1930s.

The Democrats’ criticisms of the administration center on its failure to secure US imperialism’s aims in Iran. On ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona said Trump had gone to war “without a plan.” He added: “We can’t leave the Strait in the hands of the Iranians. They can’t be allowed to get a nuclear weapon.”

On Thursday, 21 Democratic senators, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer among them, wrote in a statement on Trump’s Washington summit that day with Chinese President Xi Jinping that the United States “should never have launched the reckless and illegal war against Iran.” In the same statement they complained that “Beijing has exploited the conflict to purchase discounted Iranian oil, while U.S. munitions and strategic stockpiles have been expended at alarming rates.” Schumer told the Senate that day that Trump had acted “sort of as a supplicant” toward Xi and “needs to finally show some backbone.”

On September 16, 58 Democrats helped the House pass a bill that lets Trump impose tariffs as steep as 100 percent on the countries that buy the most Russian oil and gas, chiefly China and India. The bill also extends US sanctions on Iran.

Previously, on September 1, House Democrats voted 176 to 29 for a stopgap bill that keeps the government, the Pentagon included, funded through December 11. In January, 149 House Democrats had voted for the $839 billion military budget that has paid for the war since February 28.

Whatever the result on November 3, the Democratic and Republican parties alike support the war on Iran and the aim of subordinating the country to US domination.

‘Do there what we did in Gaza’: Smotrich calls for full-scale war in occupied West Bank

September 28, 2026

Finance minister says Israel should dismantle the Palestinian Authority and expand Israeli territorial control of occupied territory

Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is surrounded by Israeli settlers during a settlement ceremony of Sa-Nur, in the occupied West Bank, 19 April 2026 (Marco Longari/AFP)

Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is surrounded by Israeli settlers during a settlement ceremony of Sa-Nur, in the occupied West Bank, on 19 April 2026 (Marco Longari/AFP)

MEE staff

Published date: 27 September 2026

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has called for Israel to “go to war” in the occupied West Bank and “do there what we did in Gaza”, as the country heads towards general elections next month.

Smotrich, the leader of the far-right Religious Zionism party, in an interview with Ynet’s 120 and One political podcast, also reasserted his demand for dismantling the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited self-rule in parts of the occupied West Bank.

The call for a full-scale Israeli war comes amid relentless settler violence and movement restrictions across the West Bank. 

On Sunday, Israeli authorities ordered a “comprehensive closure” of the crossings into the occupied territory for the Jewish holiday of Sukkot. 

Israeli forces tightened restrictions around the West Bank city of Ramallah, closing roads and entrances to several towns and villages, the Palestinian news agency Wafa reported.

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Local sources told Wafa that the entrance gate to Turmus Ayya, north of Ramallah, was closed and residents were “harassed”.

Wafa also reported that entrances to Aboud, Nabi Saleh, Atara and Taybeh were closed, while military checkpoints were set up at the entrances to Yabroud and Ein Sinyah. 

Smotrich, who is a leading advocate of expanding illegal Israeli settlements and extending Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank, also defended his wider political agenda ahead of the 27 October elections.

“I don’t turn my back on my partners,” he said, rejecting the possibility of joining a unity government between rival political blocs.

Smotrich announces plan to judaise Negev and Galilee

Read More »

“I am part of the national camp, which shares a broad common denominator of Jewish identity, Zionism, love of the land, settlement and a distinct security doctrine.”

When asked about former Israeli military officer Ofer Winter, who is running a new political party, Smotrich accused him of taking an “irresponsible gamble” that could compromise Israel’s security.

“There is a 99.9 percent chance he won’t cross the threshold,” Smotrich said. “Anyone voting for him is throwing their vote in the trash, and that is what will bring the left to power, establish a Palestinian state and erode Israel’s Jewish identity.”

Amcha Yisrael, the group for which Winter is a spokesperson, rejected Smotrich’s assessment, accusing Israel’s political leadership of failing to win what it called a decisive victory in Gaza.

“Three years after October 7, there is no decisive victory in Gaza and no voluntary migration,” said the party. “The failed mindset persists.”

Smotrich also rejected the idea of working with Raam, an Arab-led party that has been part of Israeli coalition politics, saying in the interview that its leadership ultimately sought Israel’s destruction. 

Pressure in the West Bank 

Smotrich’s comments come as conditions deteriorate in the occupied West Bank. In an August report, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha) said Israeli settlement outposts had increasingly encroached on areas of the West Bank over which the Palestinian Authority exercises limited administrative control.

Israeli settlement outposts, previously concentrated in Area C, were increasingly extending into Area B, the agency said, adding that violence and threats have been used to restrict Palestinian access to land. 

Israel displaces hundreds of Palestinians amid wave of demolitions in West Bank

Read More »

According to the Israeli organisation Peace Now, settlers have taken over more than 100,000 dunams (10,000 hectares) of land in Areas A and B of the West Bank.

As of July, the UN agency said some 850 Palestinians had been injured in settler attacks in the occupied West Bank since the start of 2026, with an average of more than three injuries a day attributed to settler attacks.

The UN says the West Bank is already criss-crossed by a vast array of Israeli checkpoints, gates, barriers and permit restrictions.

In December 2025, Ocha recorded 925 obstacles to movement, saying the system, along with the separation barrier, severely restricts Palestinian movement.

In July 2024, the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful and that new settlement activity must cease. 

The court also found that measures almost entirely separating Israeli settlers from Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem violated the Convention on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination.

The UN has repeatedly stated that Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory have no legal validity under international law. It has also warned that expansion of settlements and related measures risk further dispossession and displacement of Palestinians.

Iran stands firm on Hormuz plan after US rejection

September 27, 2026

AFP Published September 27, 2026

Add Dawn as a trusted source

Iran stood firm Sunday on its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, despite United States President Donald Trump’s rejection of the proposal that had created some optimism for breaking the Mideast war stalemate.

The waterway is key to the world’s energy supply and is now central to the conflict between Washington and Tehran, which was triggered nearly seven months ago with deadly strikes on Iran.

Iran’s plan called for a cessation of all hostilities in the Middle East, including in Lebanon, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and fulfilling conditions in the ceasefire deal that fell apart months ago.

That agreement, which dissolved during fighting over Hormuz, called for the release of frozen Iranian assets, the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and an end to the US naval blockade.

“Our conditions are clear, and any move toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent upon these conditions being fulfilled. We will not back down from them,” Araghchi said on Sunday, state broadcaster IRIB reported.

“We have never closed the door to diplomacy or negotiations, but at the same time, we have never backed down from our rights.”

But Trump said on Saturday that he rejected the truce deal.

“They want to make a deal where they open the Strait immediately because they’re losing so badly,” he told reporters. “They want to make a deal and I think that’s fine. I like making a deal too.”

Araghchi said on Sunday that the Iranians “saw the first reaction from the US president, but so far, nothing has been conveyed to us by the mediators”.

“We are waiting for the mediators to convey the definitive positions to us, and we will make a decision based on them,” the foreign minister added.

‘Tool for pressure’

Washington and Tehran signed a Pakistan-mediated memorandum of understanding (MoU) in June that aimed to end the war, to reopen the strait and to launch talks on Iran’s nuclear programme.

But the deal broke down shortly afterwards when Iran fired on commercial ships in Hormuz that it accused of deviating from its approved route through the waterway.

Iran requires ships to obtain authorisation before passage, citing security and sovereignty reasons.

Ships that refuse to comply are regularly targeted, while the United States sporadically bombs Iranian coastal areas in retaliation.

At the UN, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan complained that the “international community has been absent” and is failing to live up to the responsibility to keep the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab open.

“The kingdom rejects any party’s use of these vital passages as a tool for pressure, threat, or harm to the interests of states,” he said, stressing the waterways’ importance to global energy security.

His Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, told member states that “Russia, together with other responsible states, stands ready to constructively contribute to stabilising this strategically important region.”

In New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, according to his office, and said: “Iran has not walked away from the negotiating table but, given past experiences, it no longer trusts the United States.”

Araghchi said at the UN: “Iran has conveyed to the United States, through Qatar, a concrete seven-day plan. If the necessary conditions are met, the strait can be reopened, and normal maritime passage restored within seven days.”

“The choice now rests with the United States. Iran does not accept coercion, threats or intimidation, and Iran will not surrender its sovereign rights under pressure,” he added.

Hossein Mohebi, a spokesman for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, was quoted by Tasnim news agency as saying: “We will not cease punishing the US until Iran’s seven conditions are met.”

Mohebi had told AFP in an exclusive interview on Tuesday that ending hostilities in Yemen was also among Tehran’s demands.

Majority of Democratic Voters Want to Prosecute Both Biden and Trump Administration Officials Over Gaza

September 23, 2026

Pro-Palestinian protest in Washington DC

Protesters gathered in front of the US State Department demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, an end to the US-backed Israeli military operations, and unrestricted humanitarian aid access on July 22, 2025, in Washington, DC.

(Photo by Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The vast majority of Democratic voters believe Israel has committed a genocide in Gaza and want its supporters in both parties to face consequences.

Stephen Prager, Common Dreams, Sep 22, 2026

The majority of Democratic voters believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza for the past three years. And they want the American politicians in both parties who supported it to pay.

In a poll released on Monday by the Center for Strategic Politics and commissioned by the magazine Liberal Currents, 683 Democratic voters were asked whether the next Democratic administration should “pursue criminal prosecution of members of the Trump and Biden administrations for actions taken related to Israel’s genocide in Gaza.”

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More than half, 57%, of the Democrats surveyed answered “yes,” while only 22% answered “no” and another 22% said they “don’t know.”

Self-described “socialists” and “progressives” were most bullish on Gaza-focused prosecutions. But so were 52% of “liberals” and even 48% of Democrats who called themselves “moderate” or “conservative.”

It is one of several questions in the poll about a hypothetical Democratic administration prosecuting its predecessors over policies considered deadly and destructive.

About two-thirds, 66%, said they wanted to see Trump administration officials prosecuted for actions taken during its aggressive war with Iran, which has led to the deaths of more than 1,700 civilians and wrought economic turmoil.

Nearly three-quarters, 72%, believed Trump officials should face similar accountability for their campaign of extrajudicial strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, which have killed more than 234 people in what a top United Nations official recently said may constitute “crimes against humanity.”

And more than three-quarters said they wanted to see Trump officials face legal penalties for actions committed by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which have waged a violent mass deportation campaign that has entailed numerous documented due process violations, instances of racial profiling, and several shootings of immigrants and US citizens without clear justification.

The question about Gaza is the only one in the survey in which Democrats were asked about the prospect of prosecuting members of their own party as well as Republicans. And while fewer Democrats ultimately answered yes, it indicates that their ire toward the American politicians supporting the genocide transcends party loyalty.

The poll results come as some activists pursue accountability for the Biden administration in other ways. Last week, organizers launched a campaign to pressure universities and other prominent institutions to cut ties with what they called the “Genocide 20.”

These are officials like former Secretary of State Tony Blinken and former National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan who crafted and defended the administration’s policy of unrestricted military aid for Israel despite mounting evidence that it was killing scores of civilians and enacting a campaign of starvation against the people of Gaza.

The United States provided Israel with at least $17.9 billion in military assistance between October 7, 2023, and the end of former President Joe Biden’s term in January 2025, according to Brown University’s Costs of War project. During that period, more than 47,000 Palestinians were confirmed killed, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health.

Since President Donald Trump returned to office, the US has continued to provide Israel with billions of dollars in military assistance, including $3.8 billion in regular annual military aid, while the Trump administration has approved billions more in arms sales and expedited weapons deliveries. The death toll has risen to nearly 74,000, according to official figures, but independent experts have suggested this may be a significant undercount.

According to Monday’s poll, more than 4 in 5 Democrats said that “foreign policy (including Israel and Iran)” is important to them in deciding which candidates to support, compared with just 4% who said it is not.

Foreign policy has been a critical dividing line in several recent Democratic primaries, in which voters have revolted against candidates backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

This includes Democratic Michigan Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who was defeated by Abdul El-Sayed in a contest for the US Senate despite her more than $30 million in backing from AIPAC, which helped to turn it into the most expensive Democratic primary ever.

AIPAC-backed House candidates have similarly suffered high-profile defeats at the hands of progressives calling to cut off US funding for Israel. Some of the victors include Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania, Brad Lander and Darializa Avila Chevalier in New York, and Aisha Wahab, who won a special election in California.

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The Arab States and the US-Israeli War on Iran

September 21, 2026

September 20, 2026

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Ali Abootalebi Informed Comment

The Arab states have long suffered from weak political legitimacy and ineffective governance. Authoritarian rule remains pervasive. According to Freedom House, no Arab country is currently classified as “Free,” while Jordan, Lebanon, and Comoros are rated “Partly Free.” Kuwait, following the suspension of its elected parliament in 2024, is now classified as “Not Free.”

The Arab world’s contribution to global scientific and technological development also remains below its potential. Although UNESCO reports that scientific publications from Arab states increased by 64 percent between 2015 and 2019, research-and-development spending remains comparatively low, and much of the region continues to depend heavily on imported technology.

These political and developmental weaknesses cannot be explained by domestic authoritarianism alone. External powers have profoundly shaped state-society relations in the Middle East.

Colonialism, military intervention, foreign-sponsored coups, economic dependence, and patron-client security relationships have influenced both the distribution of political power and the capacity of states to pursue independent national development.

The Persian Gulf monarchies’ longstanding military dependence on the United States represents

perhaps the clearest contemporary example.

From the Sykes-Picot Agreement and Balfour Declaration through the Cold War and the Arab-Israeli wars, outside powers repeatedly shaped the regional order. After the 1990–91 Persian Gulf War, the expansion of American military bases further institutionalized the security relationship between Washington and the Gulf Cooperation Council states.

The post-Cold War period did not bring an end to external military intervention. The United States has intervened militarily in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia and Yemen, among other countries, while Israel has repeatedly conducted major military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. The Military Intervention Project at Tufts University identifies almost 400 U.S. military interventions since 1776, with more than one-quarter occurring after the end of the Cold War.

The Iran War Changes the Equation

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran exposes the limitations of the regional security system more dramatically than previous conflicts.

For decades, Washington’s Arab allies relied on American military superiority as the ultimate guarantee against external threats. Iran’s ability during the present war to impose substantial costs on American military installations has complicated that assumption.

A recent Pentagon inspector-general assessment found that Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of structures at U.S. facilities across the Middle East and destroyed numerous American aircraft and drones. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that direct

U.S. Defense Department costs had already exceeded $38 billion by August 2026, with potentially billions more being spent each month if the conflict continues.

The lesson for the Persian Gulf Arab states is not that Iran poses no threat. Tehran has supported armed non-state organizations, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and Arab governments have legitimate concerns about Iranian power and regional ambitions.

But treating Iran exclusively as an enemy has not produced regional security either.

Iran is a large state of roughly 90 million people occupying one side of the Persian Gulf and possessing substantial military capabilities, energy resources, and geopolitical influence. No durable Persian Gulf security system can simply exclude it.

The war therefore creates an opportunity for the Gulf Arab states to reconsider their overwhelming security dependence on the United States and move toward a regional system in which neighboring states assume greater responsibility for their own collective security.

There are already signs of movement in this direction. At the 166th ministerial session of the Arab League Council in September 2026, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for comprehensive Arab security arrangements involving greater defense coordination, crisis-response mechanisms, and implementation procedures. He proposed building on the 1950 Arab Treaty of Joint Defence while respecting the sovereignty of individual Arab states.

That proposal is important. But an exclusively Arab security architecture is insufficient.

From Arab Security to Regional Security

What the Persian Gulf ultimately requires is a regional, rather than merely Arab, security arrangement incorporating both the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran.

There are precedents for adversarial states negotiating institutional frameworks around shared interests. In August 2018, after two decades of negotiations, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea. The agreement did not resolve every dispute among the five governments, but it demonstrated that states with conflicting interests could nevertheless construct rules governing security, sovereignty, resources, and economic cooperation.

The same logic should apply to the Persian Gulf.

The GCC states and Iran share an overwhelming interest in avoiding perpetual warfare. China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Europe, and the United States likewise have enormous stakes in the stability of Gulf energy production and international shipping.

The institutional challenge is therefore to transform these overlapping interests into a security framework capable of restraining individual states—including Iran—from threatening their neighbors while simultaneously reducing incentives for external military domination.

In a 2013 study coauthored with Stephen Hill, I proposed a three-tiered diplomatic approach toward U.S.-Iranian rapprochement and the eventual establishment of a Persian Gulf Security Alliance (PGSA). The basic logic of that proposal remains relevant.

A PGSA could bring together Iran, the GCC states, and the United States around common security interests. China, Russia, India, and Pakistan could participate in negotiated roles as well. Their inclusion would help prevent such an organization from becoming—or being perceived as—another Western military alliance directed against Iran, China, or Russia.

Such an arrangement would not require Gulf states to trust Iran, nor Iran to trust the United States. Successful security institutions rarely begin with trust. They create procedures through which states possessing competing interests can communicate, negotiate, monitor commitments, and gradually reduce the danger of miscalculation.

The Persian Gulf at a Crossroads

The strategic environment of West Asia has changed dramatically since October 2023 and even more sharply since the outbreak of direct warfare involving Iran.

Iran cannot realistically be removed from the regional balance of power. Tehran considers recognition of its sovereignty, its civilian nuclear program, its missile capabilities, and an end to what it views as a continuing American-Western policy of coercion to be fundamental national-security issues. Washington and the Arab Gulf states, meanwhile, have their own security concerns about Iran that any negotiated regional architecture would have to address.


Doha, Qatar. © 2018 Juan Cole.

A regional security organization would also serve American interests. As Washington increasingly focuses strategic resources on competition with China and Russia, participation in an inclusive Persian Gulf arrangement could preserve an American role in regional security without requiring perpetual military primacy or exclusive reliance on bilateral patron-client relationships.

For the Arab Gulf states, the stakes are even greater.

They face the difficult transition from oil-dependent rentier economies, pressures for more responsive governance, dependence on foreign labor, limited domestic industrial and agricultural capacity, rapidly growing technological demands, and the transformative—and still uncertain—effects of artificial intelligence.

Perpetual regional warfare makes confronting these challenges vastly more difficult.

The current war should therefore be understood not simply as another episode in the long confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States. It should force a larger reconsideration of the political and security architecture of the Persian Gulf.

For decades, Gulf security has rested primarily on American military power and bilateral protection arrangements. The present conflict demonstrates the vulnerabilities of that system.

The alternative is neither Iranian domination nor American withdrawal. It is the gradual construction of a regional security framework in which Arab states, Iran, and major international stakeholders accept institutional restraints and recognize that their long-term security is ultimately interdependent.

The Persian Gulf states are at a crossroads. Another generation of militarization, intervention, and regional confrontation is possible. But so is a different security order built around diplomacy, regional responsibility, and negotiated coexistence.

The latter will be difficult to construct.

The alternative may prove considerably more costly.

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