11 December 2024
The recent fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus marked a turning point in Syriaโs ongoing conflict, with new reports revealing a covert Ukrainian role in aiding Syrian rebels.
Ukrainian intelligence provided strategic support, including drone technology and experienced operators, to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant rebel faction in Idlib, Caliber.Az reports via The Washington Post.
This effort underscores Ukraineโs broader strategy to undermine Russian influence on multiple fronts amid its ongoing war with Moscow.
Approximately four to five weeks prior to the HTS-led offensive, Ukrainian operatives delivered 150 first-person-view drones and deployed 20 experienced operators to assist the rebels. Although Western intelligence sources suggest this aid played a modest role in the regimeโs downfall, it was a significant demonstration of Kyivโs intent to counter Russia in unconventional theatres such as the Middle East, Africa, and even within Russia itself.
Ukraineโs intelligence agency, the GUR, has reportedly collaborated with opposition groups in Syria under a special unit known as โKhimik,โ bolstering rebel capabilities against Russian-backed Syrian forces.
Ukraineโs motivations for such actions are clear. With its homeland under siege, Kyiv is actively opening secondary fronts to stretch Russian resources and influence. A June report in the Kyiv Post detailed strikes by Ukrainian-backed Syrian rebels on Russian military installations, accompanied by video evidence of these operations.
Russian officials have expressed growing concern, with statements from representatives such as Alexander Lavrentyev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accusing Ukrainian intelligence of conducting “dirty operations” in Idlib. Despite these claims, independent verification remains scarce.
While Russia has downplayed Ukraineโs involvement, pointing to HTSโs independent drone program and prior expertise, the rapid collapse of Assadโs regime caught Moscow off guard. Russian Telegram channels have sought to minimize Kyivโs role, suggesting Ukrainian personnel were in Syria for too short a time to significantly influence operations. However, this narrative contrasts with Ukraineโs broader pattern of covert actions against Russian forces worldwide.
Beyond Syria, Ukraine has demonstrated its capability for overseas operations in other regions. In July 2023, Ukrainian intelligence reportedly supported Malian rebels in an ambush against Wagner Group mercenaries, resulting in significant losses for the Russian paramilitary group.
Such actions highlight the GURโs aggressive strategy, with its head, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, affirming Ukraineโs commitment to targeting Russian military assets globally. This approach has drawn concerns from Western allies, including the Biden administration, over potential escalations.
Ukraineโs actions in Syria align with its broader strategy to disrupt Russia’s influence and partnerships. By aiding HTS, Kyiv weakened a critical Russian ally in the Middle East, further isolating Moscow. Although the Ukrainian assistance may not have been decisive, it contributed to an environment where the Assad regimeโs fall became inevitable.
The parallels to other intelligence failures, such as Russiaโs inability to anticipate HTSโs offensive or Israelโs surprise during Hamasโs October 2023 attack, are striking. Both underscore the challenges nations face in responding to unconventional threats.
For Ukraine, these operations serve as a testament to its resilience and resourcefulness in a protracted struggle against a powerful adversary. While not the decisive factor in Damascus, Ukraineโs covert actions signal its intent to shape the global battlefield to its advantage.
By Aghakazim Guliyev
Peace and Justice Post 
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