Posts Tagged ‘Al Qaeda’

Pakistani secret service given millions by CIA

November 16, 2009

WASHINGTON: The CIA has funnelled hundreds of millions of dollars to Pakistan’s intelligence service since the September 11 attacks, accounting for as much as one-third of the agency’s budget, US officials say.

The Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) also has collected tens of millions of dollars through a classified CIA program that pays for the capture or killing of wanted militants, a clandestine counterpart to the rewards publicly offered by the State Department.

Continues >>


Commission hears graphic accounts of torture from former detainees

November 2, 2009

By Maria J. Dass, The Sun Daily, Nov. 1, 2009

Former Guantanamo detainee, Moazzam Begg, aided by Sami
Al-Hajj(standing) demonstrates how he was shackled at the camp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 30, 2009): The Kuala Lumpur War Crimes Commission today heard harrowing testimonies about the atrocities committed against the Guantanamo Bay detainees, which included psychological torture and routine humiliation.

A total of seven detainees including Sudanese journalist Sami Al’Hajj, and British nationals Moazzam Begg and Rahul Ahmed testified today about the atrocities that took place in the camps including how they were shackled, stripped naked in front of female soldiers, thrown naked into makeshift cells made with barbed wires, injected with substances and subjected to mental torture to the point they hallucinated.

Begg was detained in January 2002 in Pakistan, said he was told that there was no specific reason for his arrest except for the fact that he “fit a profile”.

Continues >>

 

US troops not likely to leave Iraq

October 3, 2009
Middle East Online, Oct 2, 2009


But with US military presence, Al-Qaeda won’t leave either

General Ray Odierno cites Al-Qaeda – again – as excuse to keep big US military force in Iraq.

WASHINGTON – Gaining the upper hand against Al-Qaeda in Iraq has required a big US military force coupled with manhunts against militant leaders, the American commander there said on Thursday.

“You have to have both combined,” General Ray Odierno, the commander of US forces in Iraq, told a news conference.

Al-Qaeda did not have a presence in Iraq, and observers say they are likely to remain in Iraq as long as US troops remain there because of their eagerness to follow and fight American military presence in the region.

Where there is little visible US presence, they add, there is usually little or no Al-Qaeda operations in the region.

Contrary to US “propaganda”, analysts believe that Al-Qaeda is more likely to leave Iraq in the absence of US occupation or military presence.

Continues >>


General McChrystal: No Sign of al-Qaeda Presence in Afghanistan

September 12, 2009

Also Guesses Ongoing War Might’ve Prevented Terror Attacks

by Jason Ditz, Antiwar.com,  September 11, 2009

Speaking on the eight-year anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attack, top US commander in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal says that he sees no indication of any large al-Qaeda presence in Afghanistan.

Gen. Stanley McChrystal

Gen. McChrystal’s comments come at a time when the Obama Administration is facing an increasing revolt over the ongoing war in Afghanistan, and officials have used the “threat” posed by al-Qaeda as their primary justification for continuing the conflict.

Seemingly oblivious to having already dismissed the conflict’s ostensible raison d’etre, the general continued to defend the war, maintaining that it was winnable given increased effort and insisting that, while he had no evidence to back it up, he “strongly believes” the war has prevented other terrorist attacks.

Gen. McChrystal has recently presented a “new” strategy for the war, roughly five months after the Obama Administration’s previous “new” strategy involved a massive increase in the number of troops in the nation. It is widely expected that McChrystal will soon request another 20,000 troops for the war, on top of the previous escalation.

A “War for Peace”

September 5, 2009

Orwell’s 1984, Alive and Well in the Obama Administration

By Anthony DiMaggio, ZNet, September 5, 2009

Anthony DiMaggio’s ZSpace Page

The Obama administration is quickly proving itself a worthy successor to the militarism that defined the Bush administration.  Obama was never an opponent of war; he is merely opposed to what he calls “dumb wars” like Iraq, which liberals in Washington view as too costly, unwinnable, or counterproductive.  However, Obama remains optimistic on Afghanistan and Pakistan, promising that the U.S. will crush al Qaeda and defeat the Taliban (based in Pakistan and southern Afghanistan respectively).

George Orwell’s depictions of wartime propaganda seem as timely as ever when looking at Obama and Bush’s “War on Terrorism.”  In his novel, 1984, Orwell described tyrannical governments that rely on “doublethink” propaganda, whereby officials “hold simultaneously two opinions which cancel out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them…to forget whatever it [is] necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment it [is] needed, and then promptly forget it again.”  Through propaganda and manipulation, officials are “conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies.”  The most notorious of such lies is the promise that peace is possible only through the pursuit of war.

In accordance with the principle of perpetual war, Obama refuses to establish a timetable for when his military crusade will end.  As in 1984, the U.S. is engaged in an enduring “War on Terrorism,” consistently fought in the name of promoting peace.  The doublethink “war is peace” framework was originally established by George W. Bush.  In a 2002 speech, Bush addressed the Department of Housing and Urban Development, explaining: “I just want you to know that, when we talk about war, we’re really talking about peace.  We want there to be peace.  We want people to live in peace all around the world…We’re going to be steadfast toward a vision that rejects terror and killing, and honors peace and hope.”

Obama is less clumsy and more eloquent in his use of Orwellian propaganda, but his message remains essentially the same.  Obama condemns the Taliban’s “brutal governance” and “denial of basic human rights to the Afghan people,” and warns against “the return in force of al Qaeda terrorists who would accompany the core Taliban leadership” and “cast Afghanistan under the shadow of perpetual violence.”  While the Taliban is obsessed with violence, U.S. leaders share a “responsibility to act – not because we seek to project power for its own sake, but because our own peace and security depends on it.”

American journalists see their role in foreign conflicts as dutifully reflecting the range of opinions expressed in Washington.   In the case of Afghanistan, both parties lend their support to war as an integral part of U.S. foreign policy.  “Responsible” criticisms are limited to questions of whether the war is unwinnable or too costly.

Afghan Corruption

The Obama administration paternalistically denigrates the Afghan government for complicity in corruption, ballot-tampering, collusion with warlords, narcotics dealing, and a lack of democratic responsiveness.  These criticisms are echoed in news stories and editorials.  The editors of the Los Angeles Times conclude that the Karzai government needs to help the Afghan people ensure “security, honest governance, impartial justice, economic development with far less corruption, and protection of women’s rights” (8/20/09).  Reporters at the New York Times highlight the inability of the Afghan government to provide resources to local governors to promote “security,” medical care, educational resources, and advisement (Oppel, 8/23/09).  The paper’s editors similarly lambaste the recent Afghan election as illegitimate, with “neither of the two main contenders offer[ing] serious solutions to the country’s problems” (8/20/09).  Always benevolent in their intentions, U.S. leaders reserve the “right” to sit in judgment of other governments judged as impure in their motives and actions.

U.S. journalists predictably blame Afghan leaders for failing to ensure reconstruction of their country, while conveniently exonerating U.S. officials for their disinterest in humanitarian aid.  The editors of the Washington Post congratulate Obama for his serious commitment to “nation-building” (3/28/09).  The NY Times’ editors concur that Obama “must speed deployment of American civilians to help Afghan leaders carry out development projects” (8/29/09).  Critics of the war can be forgiven for asking what evidence exists – outside of Obama’s rhetoric – that he is seriously committed to the reconstruction (rather than destruction) of Afghanistan.  Little has improved in Afghanistan under U.S. occupation.  The country remains one of the poorest, worst off countries in the world according to statistical indicators.  Its 32 million people rank 174th of 178 countries in the United Nations Human Development Index.  Afghanistan suffers from some of the highest infant mortality rates.  Nearly two-thirds of children are unable to attend school and less than a quarter enjoy clean drinking water.

Available evidence does not vindicate Obama’s promises that humanitarian aid is a serious priority.  The U.S. committed a mere $5 billion in reconstruction funds from 2002 to 2008 – despite the Congressional Research Services’ estimate that as much as $30 billion is needed through 2012.  As of 2008, the Afghan government concluded that it needs as much as $50 billion for adequate reconstruction over the next five years.  Barack Obama, in contrast, committed just $1 billion to reconstruction for 2010, but $68 billion for military activities.  After looking at such figures, it’s easy to conclude that the escalation of war is seen as far more important than reconstruction.

Public Opinion

U.S. leaders not only hold the Afghan government in contempt, but also the people of Afghanistan and the United States.  As of August 2009, 57% of Americans oppose the war.  77% of Afghans oppose U.S. airstrikes to “defeat the Taliban and anti-government fighters” as detrimental to their nation’s security.  It’s not that widespread public opposition to war is always ignored in media reports – it’s just not a serious concern for reporters and politicians.  The NY Times editors, for example, concede that “it is understandable that polls show that many Americans are tiring of the 8-year-old war” (8/29/09).  This, however, doesn’t stop them from enthusiastically supporting the war as “the real front in the war on terrorism” (6/30/09).  Although the paper’s reporters admit that southern Afghans are in “popular revolt” against Obama’s escalation, “extra [U.S.] forces” are still seen as vital for defeating Taliban forces and “securing” the region (Gall, 7/3/09; Oppel, 8/23/09).

Escalation

It is worth noting that almost all the major newspapers in the U.S. support escalation in Afghanistan.  The editors of the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, and Washington Times all support the “surge” in troops.  Opposition does exist from papers like the Boston Globe, where reporters ponder whether the conflict is becoming a “quagmire comparable to Vietnam” (Wayland, 7/23/2009).  Such a position is the minority view, however.  Editors at the Wall Street Journal agree that “more U.S. troops will likely be needed” (2/17/09), and a “proper counterinsurgency strategy” must be developed.  The NY Times reports that there is not “enough equipment for patrols” of the Iranian-Afghan border, and that U.S. military commanders see “their forces [as] insufficient to get the job done” (Bumiller, 7/23/09; Cooper, 9/3/09).

The justification for war in Afghanistan and Pakistan is adequately summarized by the editors of the Washington Post, who approve of Obama’s claims that: “al Qaeda is actively planning attacks on the U.S. homeland from its safe haven in Pakistan…if the Afghan government falls to the Taliban – or allows al Qaeda to go unchallenged – that country will again be a base for terrorists who want to kill as many people as they possibly can” (3/28/09).

Some common sense questions arise when contemplating escalation in Pakistan and Afghanistan – all of which are raised by non-mainstream journalists reporting from Afghanistan and scholars who study the Middle East.  These views are generally ignored, however, by mainstream journalists and political officials.  Middle East specialist Juan Cole questions the true extent of “al Qaeda’s capabilities.  They don’t seem to have a presence in Afghanistan any more to speak of.  What is called al Qaeda in the northwest of Pakistan is often just Uzbek, Tajik, and Uighur political refugees who have fled their own countries in the region because their Muslim fundamentalism is not welcomed by those regimes.  The old al Qaeda of Bin Laden and al Zawahiri appears to have been effectively disrupted.  Terrorist attacks in the West are sometimes planned by unconnected cells who are al Qaeda wannabes, but I don’t see evidence of command and control capabilities by al Qaeda central.”

Cole also warns about the unrealistic goals of the Obama administration and worries about a humanitarian crisis that will result from U.S. bombings.  “What is the goal here in Afghanistan?  If it is to wipe out the Taliban, the Taliban are a social movement that has a certain amount of support in the Pashtun areas and wiping them out would be a genocide.  Very unlikely to be accomplished and very brutal if it were done.  If the goal is to establish a stable Afghan government that could itself deal with challenges like the remaining Taliban, that’s state building on a large scale.  Afghanistan’s a mess; it’s been through thirty years of war…it has no visible means of support, it’s a fourth world country…the kind of army Afghanistan would need to control all that territory would be 100,000-200,000 troops and cost $1-2 billion a year…and the government doesn’t have that kind of money.  You’d have to have continual international aid flowing in.  So there’s a real question of whether Afghanistan actually has the resources to accomplish what the U.S. wants it to do.”

Assessments on the ground raise similar concerns.  Christian Parenti – a reporter for the Nation magazine and recently returned from Afghanistan – concludes that Obama’s plans are “insane as a policy.  I don’t think the Obama administration believes it’s going to win in Afghanistan.  They made a decision that you can’t lose two wars simultaneously…and to cover themselves politically in terms of electoral theater they’re going to make this big effort in Afghanistan, try and push the Taliban back from provinces around Kabul…make a little bit of progress, and then get re-elected and begin the process of disengaging…I don’t think the Obama administration thinks it’s going to win militarily against the Taliban, and I don’t think they’re stupid enough to think the institutions of the Afghan state are going to function.  It’s considered one of the most corrupt governments in the world…Nothing gets done, the Afghan government has very limited ability to raise taxes, 95 percent of its comes from foreign aid [which again, is far from enough to cover the country’s needs], and very little for the people of the society is produced from that.”

Civilian Casualties & “Collateral Damage”

U.S. officials and media outlets are careful to project a rhetorical concern with civilians killed in Afghanistan.  At times, the NY Times stresses that the thousands of Afghan civilians killed is “a decisive factor in souring many Afghans on the war” (Gall and Shah, 5/7/09).  The Washington Post reports that “Afghan civilian deaths present [the] U.S. with strategic problems.”  Such “mistakes” harm the United States’ image, and discredit official claims that “the Taliban is the main cause of suffering in the country” (Jaffe, 5/8/09).  Whether these deaths constitute a “mistake,” or are an entirely predictable form of criminal recklessness and negligence, is a relevant question, although one that U.S. officials and media prefer not to ask.  Journalists would rather assume that U.S. policy utilizes precision attacks, as the NY Times uncritically quotes official promises that “success” in Afghanistan “will not be measured by the number of enemy killed,” but by “the number of Afghans shielded from violence” (6/8/09).  Civilian casualties may be tragic, as the NY Times reminds readers, but it is a necessary price to be paid for “progress” in ending terror in Afghanistan.

That officials and reporters claim they are concerned with minimizing deaths is no revelation. What leader would ever claim that their goal is to kill civilians or to make this an integral part of their policy planning?  The reliance on humanitarian claims, however, presents us with an important lesson: official rhetoric about noble and humanitarian conventions is always a constant.  As a result, these claims tell us literally nothing about the realities of U.S. policy.

Past military action in Afghanistan was unsuccessful in accomplishing the basic goals laid out by U.S. leaders.  As the NY Times reported seven months after the end of the 2001-2002 U.S. campaign, “[U.S.] raids [had] not found any large groups of Taliban or al Qaeda fighters…virtually the entire top leadership of the Taliban survived the American bombing and eluded capture by American forces.”  As international security specialist Paul Rogers explains, “the al Qaeda network anticipated a strong U.S. response to 9/11 and had few of its key forces in Afghanistan.”  While Osama Bin Laden and Taliban officials did not suffer for the terrorist attacks, Afghan civilians did.  Estimates suggest that civilian deaths from 2001 through 2009 are likely in the tens of thousands, although it is impossible to come up with a precise figure.  Such casualties are quite serious in light of the fact that the 3,000 American lives lost on 9/11 provoked the U.S. to go to war with Afghanistan and Iraq.  Similar problems continue today regarding U.S. escalation of humanitarian crisis.  Gareth Porter reports in Counterpunch Magazine that “the strategy of the major U.S. military offensive in Afghanistan’s Helmand province [is] aimed at wrestling it from the Taliban,” but “is based on bringing back Afghan army and police to maintain permanent control of the population.  But that strategy poses an acute problem: the police in the province, who are linked to the local warlord, have committed systematic abuses against the population, including the abduction and rape of pre-teen boys, according to village elders” (Porter, 7/30/09).

Aside from the criminality of its allies, the U.S. bombing campaign is also escalating civilian casualties at an alarming rate.  As reported in Foreign Policy in Focus, Afghan civilian casualties escalated by 40 percent in 2008 to a total of 2,100 (Gardiner and Leaver, 3/30/09).  This, keep in mind, was prior to the surge of U.S. troops, which will inevitably bring more casualties.  U.S. bombings in Pakistan incite further misery.  The 60 predator drone strikes undertaken by the U.S. from January 2006 to April 2009 resulted in the alleged deaths of 14 al Qaeda leaders, but an additional 687 Pakistani civilians.  In other words, 94 percent of all deaths reportedly committed by the U.S. were innocent civilians.  This inconvenient reality is shamelessly omitted from American reporting on the strikes.  The Los Angeles Times, for example, ran a headline in March 2009 that read “U.S. Missile Strikes Said to Take Heavy Toll on Al Qaeda” (Miller, 3/22/09).  The story referenced the alleged members of al Qaeda killed in U.S. attacks, but omitted any reference to the number of civilians killed.  Nowhere in the piece were international legal scholars or anti-war critics cited explaining that these attacks are a criminal act of aggression and a blatant violation of international law.

Other crucial questions were neglected in this story.  For one, how crucial were the hand-full of alleged al Qaeda members killed in Pakistan to the group’s structure and power?  Juan Cole raises important questions about how central these people are to the al Qaeda network.  The Obama and Bush administrations’ failure to consistently highlight the importance of these dozen or so deaths also raises serious questions – unasked by reporters – about whether these deaths significantly furthered the “War on Terror.”  Another unasked question: are the attacks in Pakistan effectively reducing the terror threat, or increasing it by alienating fellow Muslims in the Middle East?  There is certainly precedent to ask such a question.  A 2007 study of global terrorism by Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank, for example, found evidence of an “Iraq Effect,” whereby the invasion and occupation of Iraq was accompanied by a “sevenfold increase in the yearly rate of fatal jihadist attacks, amounting to literally hundreds of additional terrorist attacks and thousands of civilian lives lost; even when terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan is excluded, fatal attacks in the rest of the world have increased by more than one-third.”

In the case of Pakistan, U.S. attacks are undeniably accompanied by an increase in hostility from the Pakistani public.  While the Pakistani people are supportive of their military’s attacks on the Taliban within Pakistan, they strongly reject U.S. bombings against alleged terrorist targets.  The continued U.S. bombing, then, is inciting further anger against the U.S.

Many of the themes I’ve discussed here are not new.  I documented the pattern of official and media censorship of the humanitarian implications of support for Afghan warlords and bombing of civilians in my book, Mass Media, Mass Propaganda.  It seems clear, amidst the plethora of evidence, that U.S. actions in Afghanistan and Pakistan are unpopular, and are escalating a humanitarian crisis.  Bombings of Pakistan threaten to further destabilize a nuclear power that is already dealing with its own threats from Islamic fundamentalist groups.

Claims that the U.S. is defeating terrorism in the Middle East are questionable at best and, in my assessment, little more than vulgar propaganda.  Every few years, Americans hear Orwellian promises from officials that we will only win peace through open-ended war.  Such claims are pure lunacy, and ensure continued death, destruction, and desperation in the wake of U.S. aggression.

Anthony DiMaggio teaches U.S. and Global Politics at Illinois State University.  He is the author of Mass Media, Mass Propaganda (2008) and When Media Goes to War (forthcoming February 2010). He can be reached at: adimagg@ilstu.edu

America’s Violent Extremism

June 6, 2009


By Paul Craig Roberts | Information Clearing House, Jume 6, 2009

What are are we to make of Obama’s speech at Cairo University in Egypt?

“I’ve come here to Cairo to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect.”

Cairo is the capital of Egypt, an American puppet state whose ruler suppresses the aspirations of Egyptian Muslims and cooperates with Israel in the blockade of Gaza.

In contrast to the Islamic University of Al-Azhar, Cairo University was founded as a civil university. Obama’s Cairo University audience was secular.

Nevertheless, Obama said startling words that many Muslims found hopeful. He said that colonialism and the Cold War had denied rights and opportunities to Muslims and resulted in Muslim countries being treated as proxies without regard to their own aspirations. The resulting blowback from “violent extremists” bred fear and mistrust between the Western and Muslim worlds.

Obama spoke of the Koran, his middle name, and his family connections to Islam.

Obama praised Islam’s contributions to civilization.

Obama declared his “responsibility as president of the United States to fight against negative stereotypes of Islam wherever they appear.”

Obama acknowledged “the responsibility we have to one another as human beings.”

Obama acknowledged Iran’s “right to access peaceful nuclear power.”

Obama declared that “no system of government can or should be imposed by one nation on any other.”

Obama’s most explosive words pertained to Israel and Palestine: “Israelis must acknowledge that just as Israel’s right to exist cannot be denied, neither can Palestine’s. The United States does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements.”

Obama declared that “the only resolution [to the conflict] is for the aspirations of both sides to be met through two states, where Israelis and Palestinians each live in peace and security. That is in Israel’s interest, Palestine’s interest, America’s interest, and the world’s interest. That is why I intend to personally pursue this outcome with all the patience that the task requires.” For Obama’s commitment to be fulfilled, Israel would have to give back the stolen West Bank lands, dismantle the wall, accept the right to return, and release 1.5 million Palestinians from the Gaza Ghetto. As this seems an unlikely collection of events, the nature of the “two-state solution” endorsed by Obama remains to be seen.

After the euphoric attention to idealistic rhetoric dies down, Obama will be criticized for extravagant words that create unrealizable expectations. But were the extravagant words other than a premier act of schmoozing Muslims designed to quiet the Muslim Brotherhood in our Egyptian puppet state and to get Muslims to accept US aggression in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan?

Obama decries regime change, but continues to practice it, invoking women’s rights to gain support from secularized Arabs. He admits that Iraq was a war of choice but claims that al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and 9/11 make Afghanistan a war of necessity.

Obama said that “the events of 9/11” and al-Qaeda’s responsibility, not America’s desire for military bases and hegemony, are the reasons America’s commitment to combating violent extremism in Afghanistan will not weaken. Will Muslims notice that Obama’s case for America’s violent extremism in Afghanistan and now Pakistan is hypocritical?

Al-Qaeda, Obama says, “chose to ruthlessly murder” nearly 3,000 people on 9/11 “and even now states their determination to kill on a massive scale.” These deaths are a mere drop in the buckets of blood that America’s invasions have brought to the Muslim world. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of the Muslims America has slaughtered are civilians, just as are the unarmed Palestinians slaughtered by the American-equipped Israeli military.

Against al-Qaeda, whose “actions are irreconcilable with the rights of human beings,” Obama invokes the Koran’s prohibition against killing an innocent. Does Obama not realize that the stricture applies to the US and its “coalition of forty-six countries” in spades?

America’s wars are all wars of choice. The more than one million dead Iraqis are not al-Qaeda. Neither are Iraq’s four million refugees. Yet, Obama says Iraqis are better off now, with their country in ruins and a fifth of their population lost, because they are rid of Saddam Hussein, a secular ruler.

No one has a good tally of the dead and refugees America has produced in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, declared Obama, “The situation in Afghanistan demonstrates America’s goals and our need to work together.”

In his first 100 days, Obama managed to create two million Pakistani refugees. It took Israel 60 years to create 3.5 million Palestinian refugees.

What Obama has really done is his speech is to accept responsibility for the neoconservative agenda of extending Western hegemony by eliminating “Muslim extremists,” that is, Muslims who want to rule themselves in keeping with Islam, not in keeping with some secularized, Westernized faux Islam.

Muslim extremists are the creation of decades of Western colonization and secularization that has created an elite, which is Muslim in name only, to rule over religious people and to suppress Islamic mores. All experts know this, and most of them hail it as bringing progress and development to the Muslim world.

Obama said that “human progress cannot be denied,” but “there need not be contradiction between development and tradition.” However, the West defines development and education. These terms mean what they mean in the West. Muslim extremists understand that these terms mean the extermination of Islam.

In typical American fashion, Obama offered Muslims money, “technological development,” and “centers of scientific excellence.”

All the Muslims have to do is to cooperate with America and be peaceful, and America will “respect the dignity of all human beings.”

Errant Drone Attacks Spur Militants in Pakistan

April 17, 2009

By Gareth Porter* | Inter Press Service News

WASHINGTON, Apr 15 (IPS) – The U.S. programme of drone aircraft strikes against higher-ranking officials of al Qaeda and allied militant organisations, which has been touted by proponents as having eliminated nine of the 20 top al Qaeda leaders, is actually weakening Pakistan’s defence against the insurgency of the Islamic militants there by killing large numbers of civilians based on faulty intelligence and discrediting the Pakistani military, according to data from the Pakistani government and interviews with senior analysts.

Some evidence indicates, moreover, that the top officials in the Barack Obama administration now see the programme more as an incentive for the Pakistani military to take a more aggressive posture toward the militants rather than as an effective tool against the insurgents.

Although the strikes have been sold to the U.S. public as a way to weaken and disrupt al Qaeda, which is an explicitly counter-terrorist objective, al Qaeda is not actually the main threat to U.S. security emanating from Pakistan, according to some analysts. The real threat comes from the broader, rapidly growing insurgency of Islamic militants against the shaky Pakistani government and military, they observe, and the drone strikes are a strategically inappropriate approach to that problem.

“Al Qaeda has very little to do with the militancy in the tribal areas of Pakistan,” said Marvin Weinbaum, former Afghanistan and Pakistan analyst at the Bureau of Intelligence Research at the U.S. Department of State and now scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute.

John McCreary, a senior intelligence analyst for the Defence Intelligence Agency until his retirement in 2006, agrees with Weinbaum’s assessment. “The drone programme is supposed to be all about al Qaeda,” he told IPS in an interview, but in fact, “the threat is much larger.”

McCreary observes that the targets in recent months “have been expanded to include Pakistani Pashtun militants.” The administration apparently had dealt with that contradiction by effectively broadening the definition of al Qaeda, according to McCreary

Ambassador James Dobbins, the director of National Security Studies at the Rand Corporation, who maintains contacts with a range of administration national security officials, told IPS in an interview that the drone strikes in Pakistan are aimed “in the short and medium term” at the counter-terrorism objective of preventing attacks on Washington and other capitals.

But as they have shifted to Pakistani Taliban targets, Dobbins said, “To degree the targets are insurgents and are Pakistanis not Arabs it would be correct to assess that they are part of an insurgency.” That raises the question, he said, whether the drone programme “is feeding the insurgency and popular support for it.”

The drone program cannot even be expected to be a decisive factor in al Qaeda’s ability to operate, according to McCreary. “All you can do with drones is decapitate leadership,” McCreary told IPS in a recent interview. “Even in relation to al Qaeda’s organisational dynamics, it has only limited, temporary impact.”

McCreary warned that the drone strikes will cause much more serious problems when they increase and expand into new parts of Pakistan as the administration is now seriously considering, according to a New York Times article Apr. 7. “Now al Qaeda is fleeing to other cities, “said McCreary. “The programme is escalating and having ripple effects that are incalculable.”

McCreary said one of the longer-term consequences of the attacks is “the public humiliation of the Pakistan Army as a defender of the national patrimony”. That effect of striking Pakistani targets with U.S. aircraft is “the least understood dimension of the attacks, the most discounted and most dangerous”. McCreary said the attacks’ “ensure that successive generations of Pakistani military officers will be viscerally anti-American.”

Administration officials have defended the drone strikes programme as necessary to weaken and disrupt al Qaeda to prevent terrorist attacks, and officials have leaked to the media in recent weeks the fact that the programme has killed nine of 20 top al Qaeda leaders.

But the Pakistani government leaked data last week to The News in Lahore showing that only 10 drone attacks out of 60 carried out from Jan. 29, 2009 to Apr. 8, 2009 actually hit al Qaeda leaders, while 50 other strikes were based on faulty intelligence and killed a total of 537 civilians but no al Qaeda leaders.

The drone strikes have been even less accurate in their targeting in 2009 than they had been from 2006 through 2008, according to the detailed data from Pakistani authorities. Of 14 drone strikes carried out in those 99 days, only one was successful, killing a senior al Qaeda commander in North Waziristan and its external operations chief. The other 13 strikes had killed 152 people without netting a single al Qaeda leader.

Dobbins, speaking to IPS before the Pakistani data on drone strikes was released, said it was difficult for an outsider to evaluate the benefits of the programme but that “we can assess that there is a significant price that is being paid” in terms of the impact on Pakistani opinion toward U.S. efforts to stem the tide of the insurgency.

Dobbins said one of the reasons for the continuing drone attacks, despite the high political price, is that “it is an incentive aimed prodding the Pakistani government.” He said he believes the United States would be happy to trade off the strikes in return for a more effective counterinsurgency campaign by the Pakistani government.

Further bolstering that interpretation of the objective of continued drone strikes is a report, in the same story in The News, that the most recent strike took place only hours after U.S. officials had reportedly received a rejection by Pakistani authorities Apr. 8 of a proposal for joint military operations against militant organisations in the tribal areas from U.S. South Asia envoy Richard Holbrooke and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, who were visiting Islamabad.

Other analysts suggest that the programme has acquired bureaucratic and political momentum because it a politically important symbol that the wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan are against al Qaeda and because the United States has no other policy instrument to demonstrate that it is doing something about the growth of Islamic groups that share al Qaeda’s extremist Islamic militancy.

McCreary believes that the programme is related to the fear of the Obama administration that it would be unable to get support for operations in Afghanistan if it didn’t focus on al Qaeda. “I think it was a way to link Afghanistan operations to al Qaeda,” he said.

“That suggests to me that the tactic for motivating domestic support is influencing the policy,” said McCreary. The former senior DIA analyst added that the drone strike programme “has acquired its own momentum, which is now having immense consequences.”

Weinbaum told IPS in an interview that the drone attacks are being continued, “primarily because we’re enormously frustrated, and they represent the only thing we really have.”

*Gareth Porter is an investigative historian and journalist specialising in U.S. national security policy. The paperback edition of his latest book, “Perils of Dominance: Imbalance of Power and the Road to War in Vietnam”, was published in 2006.

Wrong on Afghanistan!

April 4, 2009

Sometimes I feel like I am reliving the era of President Lyndon B. Johnson. The era of ‘guns and butter,’ as they called it. At the same time that Johnson was launching his ‘War on Poverty’ he was escalating the US war against the people of Vietnam and Laos, as well as carrying out the criminal invasion of the Dominican Republic (1965). Not only did these interventions (and others!) isolate the USA and set back the efforts of these various countries at self- determination, but they wrecked the US economy, siphoning off badly needed resources.

So, here we are today with the Obama administration carrying out a cautious and VERY partial withdrawal from Iraq (50,000 US troops will remain), while at the same time escalating the US troop presence in Afghanistan. Compounding this situation are US military attacks within Pakistan, an activity that is the equivalent of pouring kerosene on an open fire.

And just like President Johnson, President Obama has an ambitious domestic agenda.

It has been difficult for many liberals and progressives to outright oppose the Afghanistan war. This was true when Bush first invaded in 2001, and it remains true today. Following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, many people in the USA, including but not limited to the Bush administration, were looking for revenge. In fact, there were those who said quite explicitly that revenge should take precedence over justice. And so we got it- revenge that is.

The Afghanistan war was never a ‘good war.’ Yes, Al Qaeda had bases in Afghanistan. So, let’s think about another situation and how it was handled. The Nicaraguan Contras, the US-backed terrorists who waged a war against the Sandinista government in the 1980s, were based in Honduras. The Honduran government did not control those bases, even if they turned a blind-eye to them. And, to emphasize the point, the Contras were supplied, resupplied, and further supplied by the US government. In fact, the USA mined Nicaraguan harbors, a clear act of war by one government against another.

So, should the Sandinistas have attacked Honduras, overthrown the Honduran government, and perhaps have attacked Miami for good measure? How do you think that much of the world would have responded? In fact, the Sandinistas went to the World Court and brought charges against the USA. The Nicaraguans prevailed in the Court, to the surprise of everyone, yet it did not matter because the USA ignored the judgment of the Court.

The Taliban government of Afghanistan, as despicable as they were, did not carry out the assault on 11 September 2001. It was easier, however, for Bush to carry out a conventional assault against the people that only a few short months prior they had been treating as potential business partners. In carrying out that invasion the US walked into a quagmire that anyone who studied Central Asia could have (and many had) predicted. In fact, the Soviet Union had a horrific experience in Afghanistan a dozen years earlier.

So, now we are being told that the USA must continue its ‘good war’ in Afghanistan in order to crush the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The problem is that when something starts off wrong, it rarely gets much better. In fact, not only has the military situation been worsening due to a combination of bungling, corruption and cultural blindness by the invaders, but the regional political situation has been deteriorating.
A popular movement in Pakistan brought an end to the military regime of President Musharaff. At the same time, right-wing Islamists began their own military actions against the Pakistan government, the US, Pakistani Shiites, and, when they had some free time, the Indian government. It should be noted that these are not the same Taliban as are operating in Afghanistan, but these distinctions never seem to matter to the USA. Each time the USA carries out a drone attack on alleged terrorist positions in Pakistan, they strengthen the arguments and support of the right-wing Islamists.

Further US involvement in Afghanistan brings no assurance of victory. More importantly, the conflict must be resolved politically. The puppet regime in Kabul has so alienated the population that they have little control outside of the city itself. The population which, in some cases welcomed the US invasion has turned against the US and their NATO and warlord allies even if they have no love for the Taliban. There is nothing that should lead anyone to believe that this will change with the introduction of even more US forces, even if the USA spreads money around the way that they did in Iraq in order to buy off opposition.

It is not just that furthering the Afghanistan aggression takes badly needed funds away from domestic projects in the USA. That should be a given. More importantly, the Afghanistan situation is integrally linked to the internal situation in Pakistan as well as the Pakistani conflict with India (over the Kashmir). There is little that the Obama administration is currently doing that seems to recognize the extent of the potential spillover affect from further military escalation. This in a region where there are two nuclear powers within minutes of turning each other into ashes, and seem to be driven toward this end.

[BlackCommentator.com Executive Editor, Bill Fletcher, Jr., is a Senior Scholar with the Institute for Policy Studies, the immediate past president of TransAfrica Forum and co-author of, Solidarity Divided: The Crisis in Organized Labor and a New Path toward Social Justice (University of California Press), which examines the crisis of organized labor in the USA.]


“Af-Pak: Obama’s War”

April 3, 2009

by Immanuel Wallerstein ,  commentary No. 254, April 1, 2009

Af-Pak is the new acronym the U.S. government has invented for Afghanistan-Pakistan. Its meaning is that there is a geopolitical concern of the United States in which the strategy that the United States wishes to pursue involves both countries simultaneously and they cannot be considered separately. The United States has emphasized this policy by appointing a single Special Representative to the two countries, Richard Holbrooke.

It was George W. Bush who sent U.S. troops into Afghanistan. And it was George W. Bush who initiated the policy of using U.S. drones to bomb sites in Pakistan. But, now that Barack Obama, after a “careful policy review,” has embraced both policies, it has become Barack Obama’s war. This comes as no enormous surprise since, during the presidential campaign, Obama indicated that he would do these things. Still, now he has done it.

This decision is likely to be seen in retrospect as Obama’s single biggest decision concerning U.S. foreign policy, one that will be noticed by future historians as imprinting its stamp on his reputation. And it is likely to be seen as well as his single biggest mistake. For, as Vice-President Biden apparently warned in the inner policy debate on the issue, it is likely to be a quagmire from which it will be as easy to disengage as the Vietnam war.

There are therefore two questions. Why did he do it? And what are likely to be the consequences during his term of office?

Let us begin with his own explanation of why he did it. He said that “the situation is increasingly perilous,” that “the future of Afghanistan is inextricably linked to the future of its neighbor, Pakistan,” and that “for the American people, [Pakistan’s] border region [with Afghanistan] has become the most dangerous place in the world.”

And why is it so dangerous? Quite simply, it is because it is a safe haven for al-Qaeda to “train terrorists” and to “plot attacks” – not only against Afghanistan and the United States but everywhere in the world. The fight against al-Qaeda is no longer called the “war on terrorism” but is hard to see the difference. Obama claims that the Bush administration had lost its “focus” and that he has now installed a “comprehensive, new strategy.” In short, Obama is going to do this better than Bush.

What then are the new elements? The United States will send more troops to Afghanistan – 17,000 combat troops and 4000 trainers of the Afghan forces. It will send more money. It proposes to give Pakistan $1.5 billion a year for five years to “build schools and roads and hospitals.” It proposes to send “agricultural specialists and educators, engineers and lawyers” to Afghanistan to “develop an economy that isn’t dominated by illicit drugs.” In short, Obama says that he believes that “a campaign against extremism will not succeed with bullets or bombs alone.”

However, implicitly unlike Bush, this will not be a “blank check” to the two governments. “Pakistan must demonstrate its commitment to rooting out al Qaeda and the violent extremists within its borders.” As for Afghanistan, the United States “will seek a new compact with the Afghan government that cracks down on corrupt behavior.” The Afghan and Pakistani governments are pleased to be getting the new resources. They haven’t said that they will meet Obama’s conditions. And Obama hasn’t said what he will do if the two governments don’t meet his conditions.

As for the way forward, Obama asserts that “there will be no peace without reconciliation with former enemies.” Reconciliation? Well, not with the “uncompromising core of the Taliban,” or with al-Qaeda, but with those Taliban “who’ve taken up arms because of coercion, or simply for a price.” To do this, Obama wants assistance. He proposes to create a new Contact Group that will include not only “our NATO allies” but also “the Central Asian states, the Gulf nations and Iran, Russia, India and China.”

The most striking aspect of this major commitment is how little enthusiasm it has evoked around the world. In the United States, it has been applauded by the remnants of the neo-cons and McCain. So far, other politicians and the press have been reserved. Iran, Russia, India, and China have not exactly jumped on the bandwagon. They are particularly cool about the idea of reconciliation with so-called moderate Taliban. And both the Guardian and McClatchy report that the Taliban themselves have reacted by creating unity within their hitherto divided ranks – presumably the opposite of what Obama is trying to achieve.

So, where will we probably be six months from now? There will be more U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and the U.S. commanders will probably say that the 21,000 Obama is sending are not enough. There will be further withdrawals of NATO troops from there – a repeat of the Iraq scenario. There will be further, perhaps more extensive, bombings in Pakistan, and consequently even more intensive anti-American sentiments throughout the country. The Pakistani government will not be moving against the Taliban for at least three reasons. The still very influential ISI component of the Pakistani army actually supports the Taliban. The rest of the army is conflicted and in any case probably too weak to do the job. The government will not really press them to do more because it will only thereby strengthen its main rival party which opposes such action and the result may be another army coup.

In short, the “clear and focused goal” that Obama proposes – “to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future” – will probably be further than ever from accomplishment. The question is what can Obama do then? He can “stay the course” (shades of Rumsfeld in Iraq), constantly escalate the troop commitment, while changing the local political leadership (shades of Kennedy/Johnson and Ngo Dinh Diem in Vietnam), or he can turn tail and pull out (as the United States finally did in Vietnam). He is not going to be cheered for any of these choices.

I have the impression that Obama thinks that his speech left him some wiggle room. I think he will find out rather how few choices he will have that are palatable. I think therefore he made a big, probably irreparable, mistake.

Some Strategists Cast Doubt on Afghan War Rationale

March 29, 2009

Analysis by Gareth Porter* | Inter Press Service News

WASHINGTON, Mar 28 (IPS) – The argument for deeper U.S. military commitment to the Afghan War invoked by President Barack Obama in his first major policy statement on Afghanistan and Pakistan Friday – that al Qaeda must be denied a safe haven in Afghanistan – has been not been subjected to public debate in Washington.

A few influential strategists here have been arguing, however, that this official rationale misstates the al Qaeda problem and ignores the serious risk that an escalating U.S. war poses to Pakistan.

Those strategists doubt that al Qaeda would seek to move into Afghanistan as long as they are ensconced in Pakistan and argue that escalating U.S. drone airstrikes or Special Operations raids on Taliban targets in Pakistan will actually strengthen radical jihadi groups in the country and weaken the Pakistani government’s ability to resist them.

The first military strategist to go on record with such a dissenting view on Afghanistan and Pakistan was Col. T. X. Hammes, a retired Marine officer and author of the 2004 book “The Sling and the Stone”, which argued that the U.S. military faces a new type of warfare which it would continue to lose if it did not radically reorient its thinking. He became more widely known as one of the first military officers to call in September 2006 for Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation over failures in Iraq.

Col. Hammes dissected the rationale for the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan in an article last September on the website of the “Small Wars Journal”, which specialises in counterinsurgency issues. He questioned the argument that Afghanistan had to be stabilised in order to deny al Qaeda a terrorist base there, because, “Unfortunately, al Qaeda has moved its forces and its bases into Pakistan.”

Hammes suggested that the Afghan War might actually undermine the tenuous stability of a Pakistani regime, thus making the al Qaeda threat far more serious. He complained that “neither candidate has even commented on how our actions [in Afghanistan] may be feeding Pakistan’s instability.”

Hammes, who has since joined the Institute for Defence Analysis, a Pentagon contractor, declined to comment on the Obama administration’s rationale for the Afghan War for this article.

Kenneth Pollack, the director of research at the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, has also expressed doubt about the official argument for escalation in Afghanistan. Pollack’s 2002 book, “The Threatening Storm,” was important in persuading opinion-makers in Washington to support the Bush administration’s use of U.S. military force against the Saddam Hussein regime, and he remains an enthusiastic supporter of the U.S. military presence in Iraq.

But at a Brookings forum Dec. 16, Pollack expressed serious doubts about the strategic rationale for committing the U.S. military to Afghanistan. Contrasting the case for war in Afghanistan with the one for war in Iraq in 2003, he said, it is “much harder to see the tie between Afghanistan and our vital interests.”

Like Hammes, Pollack argued that it is Pakistan, where al Qaeda’s leadership has flourished since being ejected from Afghanistan, which could clearly affect those vital interests. And additional U.S. troops in Afghanistan, Pollack pointed out, “are not going to solve the problems of Pakistan.”

Responding to a question about the possibility of U.S. attacks against Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan paralleling the U.S. efforts during the Vietnam War to clean out the Communist “sanctuaries” in Cambodia, Pollack expressed concern about that possibility. “The more we put the troops into Afghanistan,” said Pollack, “the more we are tempted to mount cross-border operations into Pakistan, exactly as we did in Vietnam.”

Pollack cast doubt on the use of either drone bombing attacks or Special Operations commando raids into Pakistan as an approach to dealing with the Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan. “The only way to do it is to mount a full-scale counterinsurgency campaign,” said Pollack, “which seems unlikely in the case of Pakistan.”

The concern raised by Hammes and Pollack about the war in Afghanistan spilling over into Pakistan paralleled concerns in the U.S. intelligence community about the effect on Pakistan of commando raids by U.S. Special Operations forces based in Afghanistan against targets inside Pakistan. In mid-August 2008, the National Intelligence Council presented to the White House the consensus view of the intelligence community that such Special Forces raids, which were then under consideration, could threaten the unity of the Pakistani military if continued long enough, as IPS reported Sep. 9.

Despite that warning, a commando raid was carried out on a target in South Waziristan Sep. 3, reportedly killing as many as 20 people, mostly apparently civilians. A Pentagon official told Army Times reporter Sean D. Naylor that the raid was in response to cross-border activities by Taliban allies with the complicity of the Pakistani military’s Frontier Corps.

Although that raid was supposed to be the beginning of a longer campaign, it was halted because of the virulence of the political backlash in Pakistan that followed, according to Naylor’s Sep. 29 report. The raid represented “a strategic miscalculation,” one U.S. official told Naylor. “We did not fully appreciate the vehemence of the Pakistani response.”

The Pakistani military sent a strong message to Washington by demonstrating that they were willing to close down U.S. supply routes through the Khyber Pass talking about shooting at U.S. helicopters.

The commando raids were put on hold for the time being, but the issue of resuming them was part of the Obama administration’s policy review. That aspect of the review has not been revealed.

Meanwhile airstrikes by drone aircraft in Pakistan have sharply increased in recent months, increasingly targeting Pashtun allies of the Taliban.

Last week, apparently anticipating one result of the policy review, the New York Times reported Obama and his national security advisers were considering expanding the strikes by drone aircraft from the Tribal areas of Northwest Pakistan to Quetta, Baluchistan, where top Taliban leaders are known to be located.

But Daniel Byman, a former CIA analyst and counter-terrorism policy specialist at Georgetown University, who has been research director on the Middle East at the RAND corporation, told the Times that, if drone attacks were expanded as is now being contemplated, al Qaeda and other jihadist organisations might move “farther and farther into Pakistan, into cities”.

Byman believes that would risk “weakening the government we want to bolster”, which he says is “already to some degree a house of cards.” The Times report suggested that some officials in the administration agree with Byman’s assessment.

The drone strikes are admitted by U.S. officials to be so unpopular with the Pakistani public that no Pakistani government can afford to appear to tolerate them, the Times reported.

But such dissenting views as those voiced by Hammes, Pollack and Byman are unknown on Capital Hill. At a hearing on Afghanistan before a subcommittee of the House Government Operations Committee Thursday, the four witnesses were all enthusiastic supporters of escalation, and the argument that U.S. troops must fight to prevent al Qaeda from getting a new sanctuary in Afghanistan never even came up for discussion.

*Gareth Porter is an investigative historian and journalist specialising in U.S. national security policy. The paperback edition of his latest book, “Perils of Dominance: Imbalance of Power and the Road to War in Vietnam”, was published in 2006.